USA Macro Conditions
- The share of small retail businesses that couldn’t make rent increased to 34% in April, up to six percentage points from February, according to survey data from Alignable
- Those surveys cited increases in inflation, diesel & gas prices, supply chain issues, and labor shortages.
- Inflation rose to even more uncomfortably high levels, with the headline being a 0.9% increase month to month to 6.6% annualized inflation for 2022.
Las Vegas Market Conditions
Las Vegas Unemployment – 4.88%
Feb 21- Feb 22 – Total jobs increased 12.7% YoY – 1,032,500 current Las Vegas Employment – – driven by the rebound in Casino/Convention Activity + New Biz from CA.
Visitor Volume – Is still down about 20% from record highs of 2019 – conventions attendance has continued to be sluggish but is on an upward trend as covid moves to the rearview mirror.
Retail Market
- Retail Vacancy 5.4%
- Net absorption and construction are out of sync, so I expect new construction vacancy to increase as more product is delivered. Our office has started to see clients unable to justify the increased asking rents and are choosing to wait on doing new deals.
- Drive-Thru’s & pads sites are seeing significant competition right now.
- Ground Lease & Build to Suites are going north of $120-$150K+.
- Car washes seem to be also very active in the market with lots of M&A along with new players coming into the market.
- Cap rates for NNN investments have continued to compress well below the 4.75% range – to as low as 3.75% for certain national credit tenants.
Vegas Land Prices
- Commercial land prices to about $1.0-$1.1M per acre.
- Industrial land prices – $650-850K per acre.
Industrial & Logistics
21Q1
- 5.5% vacancy.
- Under construction, 5.45 million square feet.
- The average asking rate was $0.73 PSF NNN.
22Q1
- 1.3% Vacancy – a record low.
- Under construction 8.0 M SqFt.
- The average asking rate was $1.05 PSF NNN.
Price Per SqFt – Sale rates have increased during the tightening market conditions. It isn’t uncommon for multiple offers and bidding wars for buildings. Each submarket is very different, but these can be general averages for the overall market.
- $250-$265 PSF for smaller properties 6K-15K – Lease Rates $1.20+/PSF/MO.
- $187-$205 PSF for Larger Spaces 20K+ – Lease Rates $0.85+/SF/MO.
We are seeing developers in Las Vegas build larger logistic spaces ranging from 20k-100k square feet, leaving the desired owner-user space in high demand. I expect lease rates and sales prices for properties under 15K square feet to increase dramatically.
Office
- Vacancy Rate 12.5%.
- Class asking rates (FSG Lease) – $2.32 PSF.
New projects are coming out-of-the ground around the 215 Beltway, with future growth planned around Sunset & Durango Area. The market is in expansion mode.
Apartments / Residential
- Class B-C Studio apartment rents have increased over 17.79% YOY in Las Vegas from $1,130 to $1,331 – Rents in Q1 2019 were $1050 as a baseline.
- Overall median rents increased 16.41% from $1.28 PSF – $1.49 PSF
- The average apartment vacancy is 1.36%.
- Construction is moving ahead as fast as materials are available on-site. Expect this sector to grow as we see net migration from California-New York-Rust Belt (middle-west states).
Single Family Homes
- Median prices have set a record 19th consecutive new high of $453,353.
- Annual appreciation 2021-2022 was 26.8% on average across the valley.
- The land is becoming more scarce, which has caused a drop in new permits as builders must assemble more & more parcels.